Stephen H Baum Leadership

Brian Beaulieu, a quant jock economist with a spectacular thirty year record of forecast accuracy spoke at this year’s All-City Vistage event (250 business owners and their coaches in the New York City area). He was both a spellbinding speaker and grounded in indicators of business cycles. And a surprisingly optimistic forecaster with very few caveats.

His book: Make Your Move (Morgan James 2010:ISBN: 978-1-60037-719-8) is a layman’s guide to business cycles and how to profit in both run-ups and downturns. This was the 2012 update.

His message in 2006 was dire, predicting the deep recession. This week he showed up as an optimist. His message: buy now even if you have to borrow. He listed favorite asset classes, favorite geographies, assets to sell. He is optimistic for 2012, 2013 (not 2014 — mild downturn), 2016 and 2017.  He made his case with 25 leading indicators and a lot of quantitative history.

My CEO peer advisory board members and my private clients are already deeply engaged in acquisition of companies and products, hiring star talent, altering the geographic footprint and more. Not adding fat, but investing in their next chapter.

That’s my view. What’s yours?

And if you like this post, tell your friends. If not, tell me (reply with a comment0.

For reference:

Beaulieu’s firm is ITR and you can subscribe to his service. He is now a fave for me and I almost never promote anyone and I never have any financial interest in his success.

Beaulieu economist site

And my every month source of learning is my community of CEOs/business owners and coaches in Vistage International:

Vistage International